When hydrology fails, Colombia's power grid leans on its thermal fleet. The problem in 2026 is that this backup depends increasingly on imported gas, in a market that has already lost self-sufficiency.
The numbers behind the gas deficit
Promigas's president warned that the system is operating at its limit and without sufficient backup against droughts, higher thermal demand or infrastructure failures.
- Proven reserves fell 46% between 2021 and 2025 and production dropped 31% over the same period.
- Imported gas accounted for 28% of supply so far in 2026 and 34% in August alone.
- Volumes regasified by Spec LNG went from an average of 5 mmcfd in 2021 to 174 mmcfd in 2025.
- Promigas moved up to October 2026 an expansion of Spec LNG originally planned for 2027, adding 58 mmcfd.
Why this reaches electrical operations
To get through the dry season without rationing, the system needs thermal output above 97 GWh/day, while recent readings barely reached 52.5 GWh/day. That gap explains the pressure on fuel supply and on generation coordination.
For industry the effect is twofold: a higher probability of supply restrictions and greater volatility in energy costs during the critical months.
Backup options by fuel type
- Diesel: greater logistical independence, autonomy defined by the tank, ideal for outages of uncertain duration.
- Gas: lower operating cost where supply is firm, but tied to grid availability.
- Dual or hybrid configuration: useful when the operation cannot depend on a single fuel.
- Fuel storage with a containment berm: turns backup into real autonomy.
Regulation is pushing more load onto thermal plants
In September 2026, CREG activated a preventive mechanism that sets a minimum level of thermal generation, defined according to reservoir status and scheduled by the National Dispatch Center, to serve a larger share of demand with thermal power and conserve water.
The measure eases the pressure on reservoirs, but shifts the point of tension to fuel supply: more thermal dispatch means more gas consumption —increasingly imported today— and more generation with liquid fuels when gas runs short.
The scarcity is already showing up on the bill
A more thermal-heavy mix drives up wholesale prices. In July 2026 the average spot price reported by XM was COP 797.7/kWh, 41.9% above June and 475.6% above July of the previous year.
For a non-regulated customer, the margin between the contract price (COP 324.0/kWh average in July) and the spot price determines how much each kWh purchased outside a contract hurts during the critical months. A well-operated in-house backup changes that arithmetic during peak-price hours.
What to review in your plant's gas-fired backup
- Contractual firmness of the gas supply: an interruptible contract cannot serve as the basis for a continuity plan.
- Delivery point and available pressure versus the generator set's consumption at full load.
- Startup and load-acceptance time of the gas-fired unit versus your process's real tolerance.
- An on-site alternative with stored diesel for days when gas is restricted.
- Emissions, noise and local permits, which constrain equipment siting as much as power rating.
