Throughout 2026 the operator of the National Interconnected System has issued successive alerts about the reliability of the power supply. For an industrial operation, the practical question is not whether there will be headlines, but how exposed your plant is to a scheduled outage and how much advance notice you can count on.
What XM reported about the state of the system
XM placed the reliability of the electricity service at a high-risk level due to the combination of the El Niño phenomenon, low hydrological inflows, reservoirs below target and rising demand, with an explicit call to act immediately to avoid a severe shortage.
As of September 11, 2026, average hydrological inflows stood at 76.33% and the useful reservoir level fell to 79.11%, below the 79.98% target. The accumulated inflow deficit compared with the 2015-2016 El Niño equals 4,401 GWh, close to 18 days of national demand.
- Hydro dependence close to 61% of installed capacity.
- Electricity demand growing 5.8% so far in 2026, versus a historical average of 3.8%.
- New project commissioning far below forecast: 671 MW of the 4,475 MW expected for the year.
Why the risk is not the same across the country
The alerts identify specific zones. XM warned of a critical supply scenario for the eastern area —Bogotá, Meta and Guaviare, among others— starting in January, due to the coincidence of scheduled maintenance at El Guavio and Chivor, which would take more than 1,700 MW of the system offline.
In the Caribbean region, the National Dispatch Center had already recommended scheduled rationing with regional coverage during maintenance of the Cartagena regasification plant, and warned of load shedding linked to the depletion of the regional transmission network.
What an industrial operation should review today
- Identify real critical loads: processes that cannot stop without loss of product, safety or data.
- Verify whether installed backup covers the power and runtime needed, not just the startup surge.
- Review fuel autonomy: tank capacity, resupply logistics and spill containment.
- Validate the automatic transfer switch (ATS) or synchronization based on how much of an outage your process can tolerate.
- Schedule load-bank tests and preventive maintenance before the dry season, not during it.
Hydrology: four consecutive months below average
XM's monthly balance as of August 31, 2026 confirmed four consecutive months of hydrological inflows below the historical average. The cumulative average for August was 74.46%, equivalent to 163.42 GWh-month versus a historical average of 219.47 GWh-month, and the aggregate reservoir closed at 79.36% of useful volume.
The pattern is markedly uneven across regions: Oriente posted inflows above its historical average (108.18%), while Antioquia (50.40%), Caldas (54.6%) and Valle (63.49%) were well below. That heterogeneity explains why the national alert does not translate into the same risk for every plant.
The cost is already showing up in energy prices
The hydrological shortage shows up first in the wholesale market. According to XM's report on market variables for July 2026, the average spot price was COP 797.7/kWh: 41.9% higher than the previous month (COP 562.1/kWh) and 475.6% above July of the prior year (COP 138.6/kWh).
In contracts the effect is more cushioned —COP 334.2/kWh in the regulated market and COP 324.0/kWh in the non-regulated market during July— but companies exposed to spot prices feel the impact immediately on their monthly bill.
Regulators have already activated preventive measures
In September 2026, CREG activated a mechanism that sets a minimum level of thermal generation, scheduled by the National Dispatch Center according to reservoir status, to cover a larger share of demand with thermal power and preserve stored water.
For an industrial operation this has two readings: the system is now spending its backup margins to avoid a later deficit, and the cost of energy will tend to reflect a more thermal-heavy mix for as long as the phenomenon lasts.
Outages that are already happening, even if not called rationing
Between January 1 and August 19, 2026, the National Dispatch Center issued 304 load-disconnection instructions to relieve the grid, of which 289 —close to 95%— were concentrated in the Caribbean area.
Those disconnections are not announced as national rationing, but they produce the same effect on the plant floor: an unnegotiated interruption of uncertain duration with no useful notice to shut down a process in an orderly way.
